Paperising is set for Kempton glory

Lydia Hislop13 April 2012

The Racing Post Chase tomorrow perhaps lacks the class of recent renewals, but not the competition. Two of its four Cheltenham Gold Cup entries - Commanche Court and Ad Hoc - have already defected, leaving another, Red Striker, as surprise top-weight and all his rivals in the handicap proper.

Norman Mason's yard is in great form currently and both his Reds, Striker and Ark, have good claims - but only one will run. Red Striker is the more probable, as he prefers softer ground. With up to 10mm of rain possible before racing today on going already described as good to soft, that appears likely.

Red Striker progressed fast last term and was one of the few horses to hold his form from sodden Aintree to Sandown's impromptu Finale meeting. That exertion may have taken its toll this season, because it took him until last month to rediscover his ability - albeit the yard wasn't then firing.

Richard Guest's mount had shown signs of revival behind Behrajan in December, travelling menacingly until a terrible blunder five out. He made his obligatory error early enough to recover next time out and stayed on strongly to take the Peter Marsh Chase in the dying strides. But, although Kempton's fences are easier than Haydock's, the track's sharper tenor allows no such time for recovery. One mistake and you're finished.

By contrast, Paperising's sound jumping can stand him in great stead and he possesses the ideal Kempton recipe of speed to win over shorter and stamina to see out the trip. He's also been trained specifically with this race in mind and, two promising runs under his belt, is set to peak tomorrow.

He's 1lb lower than when, seeking a hat-trick, he was beaten only by the well-handicapped, mudloving Kingsmark at Aintree last April. His below-par run at Sandown, pulled up behind Goguenard, was more typical of horses who attended both meetings. Although ten, he's still unexposed for his age.

Goguenard, who would have plenty in hand on Red Striker if running here, is more likely to head to Haydock. But stablemate Lord Of The River, the fourth Gold Cup challenger among the five-day entries, is set to run. On the sidelines for almost three years, it will be his first race under Nicky Henderson's care. When with Oliver Sherwood, he won a brace of top novice-chases and finished second to subsequent Gold Cup hero, Looks Like Trouble, in the 1999 Royal & SunAlliance Chase at the Cheltenham Festival - albeit at a respectful distance. If he can recover that form, he's thrown in. But this is a tough first ask.

Occold is another who performed to a far better level in his novicechasing days four seasons ago than what's required here. But he finished badly lame when second to Boss Doyle at the 1998 Aintree Festival. Current trainer Ferdy Murphy and predecessor Chris Kinane have worked wonders to get him back at all.

In that context, the fact his price is now half what it was when betting opened is off-putting. His fivelength success in heavy ground at Towcester last month was a triumph of stamina against lesser rivals than he faces now. He makes little short-priced appeal in an event that places more emphasis on speed.

Stablemate Luzcadou, formerly trained by Micky Hammond, offers both value and the main threat. He boasts speed to win over shorter trips yet promises to stay this sharp three miles, although more rain would help.

His half-length defeat, conceding 2lb, by A Piece Of Cake last time out was a career-best effort. Mr Baxter Basics has a stand-out chance on his old Irish form and showed definite signs of revival for Venetia Williams last time. But there are severe stamina doubts. Fellow newly arrived stablemate, Trouble Ahead, is well-handicapped but the ground may be too soft and he's prone to the odd big mistake.

Tremallt would have at least been third had he not fallen at the last in a stronger renewal 12 months ago.

He's in great heart and goes well here, but is always prone to a chance-ending error under pressure. Eau de Cologne is back on a handy mark but has not yet struck form and would prefer a sounder surface.

Racing Post Chase selections: 1, Paperising; 2, Luzcadou; 3, Tremallt.

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