Richard Dunwoody: Bank on Ruby to finish out on his own for a third time

 
Richard Dunwoody6 April 2013

Today’s Grand National will see hordes of once-a-year punters taking on the bookmakers and, as a two-time winner of the great race, let me guide you through the main contenders.

This year’s showpiece takes on a new challenge for the runners and riders as alterations have been made to the fences to improve safety while the distance has been cut by a furlong (4m3f) so there will not be such a cavalry charge to the first fence.

The last-mentioned change will be a welcome boost for Sunnyhillboy, who was just beaten on the line after leading most of the way up the gruelling straight in last year’s National.

In fact, it’s interesting to wonder how many horses would have won over the slightly shorter distance — who knows, Red Rum may never have got up to beat the gallant Crisp in 1973!

Onto this year’s event and there are plenty of sub-plots to note.

Katie Walsh, who was third on Seabass 12 months ago, is trying to become the first female jockey to win the race when she partners the same horse this time around.

And although last year’s winner Neptune Collonges won’t be defending his crown having been retired, 2011 hero Ballabriggs is bidding to become the first horse since the mighty Red Rum to regain his title.

If you like your trends, then there is no more fascinating race than the Grand National.

In terms of weight carrying, the last horse to shoulder 11st 10lb or more was Rummy in the 1970s, so despite looking well handicapped on his old form, top weight and former Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander has a heavy burden to overcome.

With 40 runners, trying to whittle the field down can be a daunting task but an important factor to take into account is the fact that 18 of the last 19 winners were aged nine or older, while seven of the last eight victors were either a nine or 10-year-old.

Considering the size of the field, the National has also not been a bad race for favourites, with three of the past eight winning. More significantly, 16 of the last 22 scorers were among the first eight in the betting.

If that statistic is to be repeated, then the field of 40 can quickly be reduced down to just eight! With those things in mind, it’s hard to get away from the Willie Mullins-trained ON HIS OWN.

As I said earlier, I was lucky enough to land this race twice during my riding days but Ruby Walsh, with two previous victories already, will be hoping to go one better as he teams up with this nine-year-old.

He has been lightly raced this campaign with just one win over hurdles but that could be a useful pointer since eight of the last 10 winners had run over the smaller obstacles at least once that season.

Of course, it was unfortunate that he fell in the race 12 months ago but he was still going well when taking a tumble at Becher’s Brook the second time around.

If he stays out of trouble and benefits from that experience, On His Own looks sure to run a huge race under one of the best riders in this year’s event.

Of those runners at a bigger price, Tom Taaffe’s Treacle was quite well fancied 12 months ago but was badly hampered before coming to grief at the 10th fence — he returns in good form after a recent win and looks a fair each-way option.

However, the other three to make up my top four are CAPPA BLEU, CHICAGO GREY and SEABASS.

All three ran in the race 12 months ago and having that experience is a massive advantage.

Cappa Bleu was an excellent fourth after being hampered earlier on while Seabass finished one place in front of him and despite a 5lb hike in the ratings this time, the slightly shorter trip will be in his favour as he seemed to just come up short at Aintree last year.

The final one to make my four is Chicago Grey from the stable of Gordon Elliott, who won the 2007 National with Silver Birch.

He was brought down early last year by a falling horse but comes here this time off a 9lb lower mark and that looks interesting.

He’d probably be a lot higher in the weights if the handicapper could reassess him after his excellent Grade Two win last time out, so with a bit more luck this time he can go close to following up last year’s ‘grey’ winner — Neptune Collonges.

Good Luck!

Dunwoody's 1-2-3-4

1 ON HIS OWN (Ruby Walsh)

2 CAPPA BLEU (Paul Maloney)

3 CHICAGO GREY (Paul Carberry)

4 SEABASS (Katie Walsh)

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