A scientific study by the CIES Football Observatory has backed Chelsea to hold on to top spot in the Premier League with Arsenal squeezing into the Champions League places ahead of Tottenham.
“Predictive analysis” by CIES, an independent football study centre in Switzerland, has Antonio Conte’s men holding off the challenge of Liverpool to secure the title with the rest of the top four rounded out by Arsenal.
Whilst Chelsea are predicted to finish top of the league with 88 points the Gunners will only fall further behind their London rivals, ending the season with a haul of 78 that would still be seven more than they managed last year.
It would still be five more than Spurs, who along with Manchester United are CIES’ picks to fall out of the six horse race for Champions League spots.
Arsenal's Premier League run-in
London’s other Premier League sides have been more concerned with their proximity to the relegation zone but the predictive model, which uses numerous factors including the number of short-range shots a team concedes, successful passes in the opposition half and the mean goal return per game to predict the remaining games of the season, suggests both West Ham and Crystal Palace have little to fear.
Sam Allardyce is predicted to guide Palace to 13th, 10 points clear of the drop, whilst West Ham are expected to finish 11th. CIES expect the league’s bottom three to be Swansea, Sunderland and Hull.
Crystal Palace's Premier League run-in
The analysis was also applied to Europe’s other top five leagues, where Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Juventus surprise no-one by being the likely champions. France could be set for a shock though, with CIES backing Monaco to pip Paris St Germain to the title by a single point.
See CIES’ full predicted Premier League table below and click here for more information
