US midterm elections 2018: Key timings, predictions and what the high-stakes vote could mean for Donald Trump

Sam Feist6 November 2018

Americans are preparing to go to the polls in the high-stakes United States midterm elections.

On Tuesday, US voters will decide between President Donald Trump's take-no-prisoners rhetoric and the Democratic Party's super-charged campaign to end the Republicans' monopoly in Washington and state legislatures across the nation.

There are indications that a so-called "blue wave" may help Democrats seize control of at least one chamber of US congress.

Here's all you need to know about the midterm elections from CNN's Sam Feist.

Donald Trump has said a vote for Republican candidates is a 'vote for him'
AFP/Getty Images

What are the midterm elections?

Every two years, the US elects all 435 members of the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate and hundreds of local officials from governors to mayors, to state legislators.

The elections happen in the middle of a president’s term when there is no presidential election, hence the title “midterm”.

Tuesday, November 6. Most states allow early voting and absentee voting, however the majority of Americans will still cast their votes on election day.

What’s at stake in Washington?

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 in the Senate.

People vote at outdoor booths during early voting in Pasadena, California
AFP/Getty Images

What about outside the capitol?

Across the country, there are 36 governor races. There are also thousands of state legislature contests and municipal polls.

In addition, there are a number of state-wide ballot initiatives that range from legalising medicinal marijuana in Utah to authorising the display of the Ten Commandments in Alabama.

What’s the current state of play in Congress?

Republicans have a two-seat majority in the Senate (51-49).

In the House of Representatives they have 235 seats, the Democrats have 193, and there are seven vacancies.

Democrats need to pick up 23 Republican-held seats to take control.

What are the chances of the Democrats winning the House? Are we likely to see a “blue wave”?

We don’t make predictions on the outcome of elections. But our election analyst, Harry Enten, has a forecast that says the most likely scenario is that Democrats win the House with a narrow 17-seat majority.

However, he also notes that there remains a possibility of a Republican-controlled House, with as much as a 29-seat majority, and in the event of a “blue wave”, he estimates that Democrats could have as large as an 89-seat majority.

In short, we don’t know what will happen, but Democrats currently have the edge.

What about the Senate?

Democrats are defending 26 seats and the Republicans nine seats. The maths alone gives Republicans a significant advantage.

For Democrats to take control of the Senate, they would have to have an almost perfect night. Not likely but not impossible.

What’s the Trump factor? Is this a referendum on the president?

Donald Trump said on the campaign trail last week that a vote for Republican candidates was a vote for him. For many Americans, this election is a referendum on him.

However, it’s important to note that each race is different and voters may cross party lines to vote for a candidate that they know or like, regardless of that candidate’s position on Mr Trump.

How important is voter turnout?

Turnout is everything. If Democrats turn out their base and Republicans don’t, then the Democrats win.

Typically, Republicans vote in larger numbers at midterms. This year there are signs that it could be different.

Democrats will have to break the historical trends but there are certainly signs they may be able to pull it off. At least in the House of Representatives.

For those watching the results come in, which are the weather-vane areas and what are the key timings?

Keep an eye on the East Coast states that close early. By 7pm Eastern Time, polls will be shut in many districts in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.

Results in key House races, plus some of the state-wide Senate races will be early indicators.

If the Democrats have a great night, we could learn relatively early whether they will take over congress.

It could also be a long night and it’s quite possible we might not know the final results for days.

Sam Feist is CNN’s Washington DC Bureau Chief. Watch round-the-clock coverage of the mid-term elections on CNN from 10pm UK time on Tuesday

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