Syria: Assad masses armed forces for bloody battle that could determine outcome of the uprising

 
A Free Syrian Army fighter runs through after a Syrian Army tank shell exploded in the Salah al- Din neighbourhood of central Aleppo August 5, 2012. REUTERS
5 August 2012

The coming days are likely to see an escalation of violence and bloodshed in Syria, as the regime of President Bashar Assad unleashes its armed forces for a major assault on rebel stronghold Aleppo, Foreign Secretary William Hague warned today.

Reports from Aleppo - Syria's largest city and commercial hub - said that Assad's forces are using heavy artillery, planes and a helicopter gunship to bombard rebel positions in a battle that could determine the outcome of the 17-month uprising.

Mr Hague warned that the regime's reliance on violence, rather than negotiations, in responding to challenges to Assad's rule, could lead to "a collapse in all authority" in the Middle Eastern country.

And following the Russian and Chinese veto of British-backed resolutions at the UN Security Council and the resignation of peace envoy Kofi Annan, the Foreign Secretary said that it may require a deterioration in circumstances on the ground to trigger a return to diplomatic efforts to stop the violence.

Britain is stepping up provision of non-lethal support, such as communications equipment, to opposition groups and is the second-largest provider of humanitarian aid to refugees fleeing the fighting, but is not supplying arms to the rebels.

Opposition commanders were today said to be preparing for a "strong offensive" on Aleppo by government forces, while in the capital Damascus, rebels were coming under attack by regime jets.

Mr Hague told Sky News: "There has been fighting in Aleppo over recent days, but it does seem that the Syrian armed forces have been building up to something bigger.

"We are likely, sadly, to see even more fighting, more bloodshed, probably a bigger flow of refugees over the coming days.

"This is, I'm afraid, the situation we warned about for a long time - that there would be a collapse in Syria and an even more deadly conflict if we didn't bring enough pressure to bear on the Assad regime to implement the peace plan of Kofi Annan.

"Our Security Council resolution was vetoed. We won't give up on the diplomatic work, but given this situation, we will step up our humanitarian assistance but also our practical help to the opposition in Syria, who are in such a desperate situation."

Following the kidnap yesterday of 48 Iranian pilgrims kidnapped during a visit to a Shi'ite shrine in Damascus, Mr Hague acknowledged the danger that Syria may spiral into sectarian conflict, and recognised that elements of the opposition were driven by religious and ethnic rivalries.

Atrocities by rebel groups were condemned by Britain just as much as those committed by the regime, said the Foreign Secretary.

"This is the danger, that there will be a more deadly sectarian conflict, that we will see a collapse of all authority in Syria," said Mr Hague. "We must condemn all such atrocities.

"There are different movements within the opposition, but there are many parts of the opposition that I have met who are certainly genuine in their commitment to a more plural, democratic society in Syria. Them, I think we can wish well in their efforts."

Mr Hague said the "prime responsibility" for the conflict, which has claimed at least 19,000 lives since the first pro-democracy protests in Syria, lay with the Assad regime.

"Here is a regime that for 17 months has waged war against its own people, that has in many cases driven people to violence and conflict because it has not responded in any peaceful, political way to the protests, to the demand for a more democratic society in Syria," he said.

"So the prime responsibility for this situation lies with the regime. We are on the side of people who seek their freedom anywhere in the world."

Mr Hague said the UK still wants to see the conflict in Syria resolved by a peaceful transition to a new government, not by violence.

But he said this outcome was made less likely by the lack of "unity" in the Security Council, where permanent members Russia and China have used their vetoes to prevent the imposition of pressure on Assad to call off his troops.

"It is going to need some change in the circumstances on the ground for Russia and China to change their position," said Mr Hague.

"If persuasion and argument was going to achieve a change of position in the Security Council we would have done it by now and Kofi Annan would have done it.

"I think it might only be a further change in the circumstances, a further collapse of the authority of the regime, bloodshed on an even greater scale, which eventually brings Russia and China - as well as all the rest of us - to insist on a peaceful and diplomatic solution.

"And of course, the danger is that by that time, people in Syria may have concluded that they gain more by fighting than by talking.

"All the time, the chances of that are diminishing, the difficulty of that is getting greater. It is a bleak time in Syria and in the absence of a peaceful solution, we will step up our support for the opposition, continue to deliver humanitarian aid and continue to intensify our work to isolate the Assad regime, its finances and its members and make life as difficult as possible for it to operate."

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