Greenland ice melt puts 400 million people at risk of coastal flooding by 2100

The region has lost 3.8 trillion tonnes of ice since 1992
Glaciers in Greenland are melting at worse-than-predicted rates
PA

Almost half a billion people are at risk of coastal flooding by the end of the century if Greenland continues to lose ice at its current rate, scientists have warned.

The country’s ice is melting faster than expected, sparking a potential rise in sea levels of 67 centimetres by 2100 unless measures are taken to reduce the effects of global warming.

A new study found that 400 million people could be hit by annual floods - 40 million more than predicted by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Earth observation specialist Dr Andrew Shepherd, of Leeds University, said: "As a rule of thumb, for every centimetre rise in global sea level another six million people are exposed to coastal flooding around the planet."

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He explained: "On current trends, Greenland ice melting will cause 100 million people to be flooded each year by the end of the century, so 400 million in total due to all sea level rise.

"These are not unlikely events or small impacts; they are happening and will be devastating for coastal communities."

In 2013, the IPCC made several predictions about global sea levels based on different scenarios. Mid-range forecasts pointed to a 60-centimetre rise by the end of the century.

But Dr Shepherd and his fellow researchers say Greenland's current ice losses are in line with the IPCC's worse-case scenario.

Their study implies an additional seven-centimetre sea level rise on top of the IPCC's estimates.

Hundreds of millions of people all over the world could suffer regular flooding as a result of global warming
PA

"We see that Greenland is tracking the upper range of the IPCC projections for future sea level rise. What's in the budget for the future is mid-range projections," Dr Shephard said.

A team of 96 polar scientists from 50 international organisations contributed to the findings published in Nature.

They performed a detailed analysis of models, taking into account satellite data obtained showing Greenland's ice sheet's volume and flow between 1992 and 2018.

The region has lost trillions of tons of ice over the past three decades
PA

The region has lost 3.8 trillion tonnes of ice since 1992 and added around 10.6 mm to the global sea levels, according to their findings.

Simulations showed that the rate of ice loss accelerated until 2013, after which it slowed down, coinciding with a period of cooler ocean and atmospheric temperatures.

Analysis indicated rise in air and ocean temperatures caused the surface ice to melt and increased glacial flow.

According to the researchers, Greenland stores enough water to raise global sea levels by six metres and knowing how much of this ice is lost is key to understanding the effects and impact of climate change.

Guofinna Aoalgeirsdottir, a professor of glaciology at the University of Iceland and lead author on the IPCC's sixth report, who was not involved in the study, said: "Satellite observations show that both melting and ice discharge from Greenland have increased since observations started.

"It is very important to keep monitoring the big ice sheets to know how much they raise sea level every year."

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