Tube only able to carry less than 15 per cent of rush hour passengers under social distancing rules

Just 50,000 commuters could board every 15 minutes if they had to keep two metres apart - when rush-hour usually sees 320,000 on board
PA

A dramatic illustration of how the Tube would be unable to cope with any form of social distancing after the lockdown is lifted can be revealed today.

A confidential document shows that only 50,000 passengers would be able to board every 15 minutes – less than 15 per cent of normal rush-hour demand – if a two-metre “social distancing” rule were in force.

Even reducing social distancing to 1m would only increase capacity to about 80,000 passengers every 15 minutes, according to the Transport for London graph seen by the Evening Standard.

By comparison, about 320,000 people boarded every 15 minutes during the 8am weekday peak in February, prior to the coronavirus restrictions being imposed.

It highlights the huge dilemma the Government faces in deciding when to ease the lockdown, and comes as Mayor Sadiq Khan spoke of his concern that a “big bang” return to work could spark a second spike in cases.

Transport for London

It could also add weight to calls for Londoners to wear face masks when using public transport to reduce the risk of spreading infection, though experts continue to debate their effectiveness.

There are about five million Tube journeys each weekday but passenger numbers have fallen by 95 per cent after only key workers were told to travel.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has spoken about firms being asked to stagger start times to prevent overcrowding on trains.

Last month TfL suggested an “Olympic-style” travel demand system would have to be introduced, with journeys spread throughout the day and passengers being re-routed away from busy stations or forced to follow one-way routes when interchanging at stations.

The graph is based on TfL being able to run a full service across the London Underground.

TfL and borough councils are also expected to introduce a temporary network of protected bike lanes and wider pavements to cope with an anticipated increase in people walking and cycling.

Mr Khan said today that the return to work and school needed to be “phased” to prevent large numbers of passengers travelling at the same time. “They can’t have a big bang where everyone goes back to school, everyone goes back to work,” he said.

He said he was “really worried” about the virus being spread. “Any increase whatsoever of people out and about would lead to us not being able to have passengers safely keeping their social distance,” he told PA Media.

A TfL spokesperson said: “Whatever happens over the coming weeks and months, everyone who can work from home must continue to do so for some time yet.

“Our intention is to progressively build up service levels, but it is clear life simply won’t be returning to what it was before. We are working with Government to understand how the restrictions on travel may be lifted - including their expectations on social distancing. This will dictate how many people can be safely carried alongside extensive mitigating measures like re-timing journeys to spread demand out of peak times and managing stations differently.

“When workplaces re-open there will be significant challenges in enabling those Londoners who cannot work from home to get to and from work while social distancing rules are still in place. We expect that there will be an enormous travel demand challenge that we will all need to overcome together, and planning is under way on how to meet that challenge and help London get moving again, safely and sustainably.”

Nigel Howard

The transport unions Aslef, RMT and TSSA yesterday expressed “severe concerns” about increasing train services without agreement on protecting the health of passengers and train staff. There are also concerns about how to provide personal protective equipment (PPE) to staff.

It comes as researchers at Imperial College today warned that Italy was at risk of a second spike in deaths if the easing of its lockdown, which began yesterday, resulted in 20 per cent more population mobility.

Like the UK, Italy, where there have been more than 29,000 deaths, shut schools and universities, banned public gathering and introduced social distancing. This drove the R reproduction number – the number of people an infected person passes the virus onto – below one.

The Imperial team found that despite more than 212,000 cases there was not “herd immunity” in Italy. As a result, even a 20 per cent return to pre-lockdown mobility “could lead to a resurgence in the number of deaths far greater than experienced in the current wave”.

It said enhanced community surveillance - including swab testing, contact tracing and the early isolation of infections – was of paramount importance to reduce the risk of a second spike in cases.

Dr Seth Flaxman, one of the report’s authors, said: “Without effective community surveillance, even a partial return to pre-lockdown levels of mobility could lead to a resurgence in the epidemic, with deaths starting to increase once again in the months ahead.”

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