Is Government set for third runway u-turn?

 
edition comment 12/7/2012 File photo dated 30/5/2007 of planes landing at Gatwick Airport in Sussex as the Government is expected to publish an aviation policy framework document, but an eagerly-awaited consultation on south east England airport capacity needs has been postponed. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Issue date: Thursday July 12, 2012. It means today's announcement by Transport Secretary Justine Greening will not include the setting out of such options as extra runways at Heathrow, Gatwick or Stansted airports. And there will be no discussion, for the time being, on two Thames Estuary new-airport plans - the "Boris Island" scheme backed by London Mayor Boris Johnson and the £50 billion project put forward by architect Lord Foster. There may be some regional airport options in the policy document but Ms Greening is expected to confine herself to such aviation matters as noise levels, night flights and emissions. The postponement on the consultation on how the UK can best maintain a global hub airport has infuriated airlines and bus
29 August 2012

Airport expansion has proved to be the political hot potato that successive UK governments have been unable to handle.

Ambitious plans for Thames Estuary airports such as those put forward by London Mayor Boris Johnson and architect Lord Foster are nothing new.

It is nearly 40 years ago that an estuary scheme at Maplin Sands near Southend in Essex was boldly put forward, only to be dropped within a year for economic reasons.

There is also nothing novel about Heathrow expansion schemes.

In 2003, the Labour government's White Paper envisaged a third runway at Heathrow by 2015-2020, with the document also supporting a second runway at Stansted Airport in Essex by around 2011 or 2012.

The Stansted plan gradually faded away but in 2009 Labour signalled its support for a third runway and a sixth terminal at Heathrow.

But Labour's defeat in the 2010 general election put an end, for the time being, to the scheme, with the coalition Government announcing that it had ruled out a third runway at the west London airport.

Now the coalition is under pressure to reverse its Heathrow position.

But airport expansion is fraught with difficulties. There are the environmental considerations as well as the political ones.

Airport expansion can create jobs, but it can also mean a loss of votes. There is also the considerable complication of Justine Greening's position as Transport Secretary.

As MP for Putney in south west London, Ms Greening campaigned against a third runway before getting the transport brief.

There are rumours that she could be moved from her post in an autumn reshuffle, thus smoothing the way for a U-turn on Heathrow.

Then there are the Liberal Democrats. While some senior Tories are now vociferous in their support for Heathrow expansion, most Lib Dems are dead against it.

Also, a third runway at Heathrow would lead to the loss of hundreds of homes in the village of Sipson, close to the airport.

But big business and airlines have been insisting that the UK economy will suffer if there is no expansion at Heathrow.

Their argument, refuted by some, is that London and the UK will lose its prominence as a place to do business, with global companies simply going elsewhere and using multi-runway airports in Europe.

But what of the alternative schemes? Mr Johnson has consistently backed a new estuary airport. He argues that Heathrow expansion is not the answer as its location means it cannot grow to compete with the likes of Frankfurt, Madrid, Amsterdam and Dubai airports.

Putting forward his plan last year, the London Mayor expressed a view on airport policy shared by some when he said: "For too long Britain has failed to act, paralysed by the difficulties."

Lord Foster's £50 billion scheme would see an airport built on the Isle of Grain capable of handling 150 million passengers a year.

Timescales and extreme costs would appear to rule out any estuary scheme. A local agreement means there can be no expansion at Gatwick Airport in West Sussex before 2019, while Stansted expansion seems unlikely.

That leaves just Heathrow. But no-one should expect any decision soon. A long-delayed Government aviation policy statement now due this autumn will merely set out the airport expansion options ahead of another document due next year.

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