There's playing the long game in politics, but more than two years out from the next mayoral election this is the City Hall equivalent of the Mongolian Derby.
The main runners have been champing at the bit since Ken Livingstone announced he would not stand again, clearing the way for somebody else to have a shot.
The field is already crowded even though each of the main candidates for the Labour nomination have insisted (publicly) they haven’t made up their minds. Privately it’s a different matter.
David Lammy is likely to be the first main candidate to declare. He is entering the race with a lot to prove. But at the Labour conference he surprised critics — he was on top of his brief and brimming with enthusiasm. He even bought a new suit.
Sadiq Khan is playing his cards very close to his chest. It comes down to 2015. If Labour wins, he wants a big Cabinet job, possibly Home Secretary. If they lose, City Hall beckons. As a Miliband ally he can pull strings on the timing of the contest but will have to be careful not to make the mayoralty look like a consolation prize.
What Andrew Adonis lacks in profile, he makes up for in intellect. His presence in the line-up guarantees that whoever is candidate will have a tranche of well thought-out policy proposals.
There have been suggestions he would consider taking on a big City Hall infrastructure role if he failed to get the mayoralty.
The bookies’ favourite, however, is Tessa Jowell. Well known across London, well liked by Labour and Tories alike, it is easy to see why. She hasn’t focused fully on the contest yet, but if and when she does she’ll be tough to beat.
Others are flirting with the prospect — Labour back-bencher Diane Abbott and formidable Public Accounts Committee chairwoman Margaret Hodge said to be among them — while transport expert Christian Wolmar has already declared.
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Many believe that City Hall is Labour’s to take in 2016. The party is taking no chances by kicking off the race before it even has an opponent.
