Brexit odds: Strengths and weaknesses of top 10 contenders to replace Theresa May

James Morris28 March 2019
WEST END FINAL

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Michael Gove remains the bookies’ favourite to succeed Theresa May as Conservative Party leader.

But he faces competition from fellow Cabinet ministers, not to mention his erstwhile friend and later rival Boris Johnson.

After Mrs May promised her MPs she would step down if her Brexit deal goes through, the Standard spoke to Tim Bale, a politics professor at London’s Queen Mary University, for his analysis of the top contenders to replace her.

Starting with Mr Gove, Prof Bale listed the key strengths and weaknesses of the 10 MPs given the best odds by William Hill as of Thursday.

Michael Gove (5/2)

Environment secretary Michael Gove leaves his London house for a run on Thursday
Peter Nicholls/Reuters

Strengths: “Great parliamentary performer. Pretty good in the media. Has performed well as a minister.”

Weaknesses: “Stabbed Boris in the front during the last leadership contest. So there’s a question about his reliability. And he’s not particularly popular with the public because of his time as education secretary.”

Boris Johnson (5/1)

Boris Johnson arrives at the Houses of Parliament on Wednesday
Dominic Lipinski/PA

Strengths: “Celebrity. Some charisma.”

Weaknesses: “Very poor performer as foreign secretary. Very poor parliamentary performer. He’s not very good at answering questions or making speeches. If you want a comedy panel show, then great. But defending the government line? He’s not your man.”

Jeremy Hunt (7/1)

Foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt in Downing Street on Tuesday
Andy Rain/EPA

Strengths: “Generally seen as a safe pair of hands. Experienced. Reasonable media performer.”

Weaknesses: “Uninspiring.”

David Lidington (7/1)

Defacto deputy PM David Lidington in Downing Street on Tuesday (Matt Dunham/AP)
AP

Strengths: “Experienced. Collegiality. Good media and parliamentary performer.”

Weaknesses: “A Remainer.”

Dominic Raab (8/1)

Former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab (Reuters)
REUTERS

Strengths: “Ambitious. A Leaver.”

Weaknesses: “Relatively inexperienced. Failed as Brexit secretary.”

Sajid Javid (9/1)

Home secretary Sajid Javid pictured in Downing Street on Tuesday
Andy Rain/EPA

Strengths: “Backstory. Competent minister. Understanding of business.”

Weaknesses: “Not a traditional Conservative."

Matt Hancock (10/1)

Health secretary Matt Hancock leaves Parliament on Wednesday
Jack Taylor/Getty Images

Strengths: “Good minister. Good parliamentary and media performer.”

Weaknesses: “Heavily associated with David Cameron [who called the 2016 referendum].”

Jacob Rees-Mogg (20/1)

Jacob Rees-Mogg, chair of the European Research Group, leaves his home in Westminster on Thursday
Neil Hall/EPA

Strengths: “Celebrity – same as Boris. Media presence. Leaver.

Weaknesses: “Old-fashioned. Seen by many as simply too posh for the job in the 21st century.”

Andrea Leadsom (20/1)

House of Commons leader Andrea Leadsom does the media rounds in London on Wednesday
Toby Melville/Reuters

Strengths: “Leaver. Understanding of the parliamentary process. Business background.”

Weaknesses: “Performed very poorly in the last leadership contest.”

Amber Rudd (20/1)

Work and pensions secretary Amber Rudd in Downing Street on Tuesday
Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images

Strengths: “Good media and parliamentary performer. Had performed well as a minister, Windrush notwithstanding, though that wasn’t really her fault.”

Weaknesses: “Remainer. Marginal seat, but that can be changed.”

And who would Prof Bale put his money on?

"If Johnson can get through the parliamentary party, the membership would pick him.

"If he doesn't get through, I guess my money would be on Hunt or Javid."

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