Hard to call the election winner from London's melting pot

10 April 2012
WEST END FINAL

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London's 73 Parliamentary seats are crammed into just 660 square miles. Charles Kennedy's Scottish constituency of Ross, Skye and Lochaber is more than six times bigger. This concentration makes the capital a fascinating political cauldron, heated further by aggressively-fought borough elections on May 6, the same day as the parliamentary contest.

At the 2005 election, when there were 74 seats, Labour won 44, the Conservatives 21 and the Liberal Democrats eight. George Galloway took Bethnal Green & Bow from Labour. A YouGov poll for ITV conducted at the end of last month suggested an eight per cent swing from Labour to Conservative — more than the national figure. At that point, the national Conservative lead was at a similar level to those shown in recent polls.
So will the capital end up with a majority of Tory MPs? On the basis of current polling, Labour must expect to lose many seats to the Conservatives, including places such as Battersea, Ealing Central & Acton and Hendon. Others like Hampstead & Kilburn and Islington South & Finsbury offer the Liberal Democrats an opportunity to take Labour seats.

There are also contests that have the potential to cause massive political heat. In Poplar & Limehouse George Galloway is standing for Respect in an attempt to unseat Labour's Jim Fitzpatrick. Galloway's intervention may allow the Conservative, Tim Archer, to take the seat. In nearby Barking, Margaret Hodge faces a difficult challenge from BNP leader Nick Griffin. Ex-Conservative Andrew Pelling is standing in Croydon Central as an Independent and may split the vote to allow Labour to hold the seat.
London will be a key battleground for all the parties. Ukip, the Greens and the BNP are likely to nibble at the major parties' votes. The city is becoming less politically predictable — good news for voters but awkward for pundits.

London is often seen as an odd place by outsiders which disguises the fact that politically it represents the country as a whole. It swings back and forth. Either party could win here.

Traditionally, winning the GLA, or before it the GLC, has been a predictor. So Boris's win would have suggested a Cameron win but he hasn't convinced the electorate in the way that Tony Blair did or Margaret Thatcher before him.

Tony Travers is director of the Greater London Group at the London School of Economics

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