Constituency focus: Hendon... the smallest Tory majority in the capital

 
Walkies: Matthew Offord in Hendon with Justine Greening and his dog Max. Right, Labour hopeful Andrew Dismore on the West Hendon estate Picture: Nigel Howard
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It is a tired cliché of the election doorstep to say that every vote could swing it. But in Hendon it is actually true. This North London seat has the smallest Tory majority — 106 — in the capital.

The contest is a two-horse race between incumbent Matthew Offord and his Labour predecessor Andrew Dismore. It was a bitterly fought battle in 2010 with each man accusing the other of running a “dirty tricks” campaign and resorting to “personal slurs and lies”. Despite both claiming it will be more civilised this time, nobody on the streets of Hendon believes it.

“I won’t be the one to throw the first stone,” insists Mr Dismore, resplendent in a red Team Hendon anorak. “It was pretty unpleasant stuff. I will criticise his political record, that’s legitimate, but not him personally.”

Mr Offord says: “We’ll run a positive campaign because I think people want to see what we’ve done rather than just slate our opponents.”

The stakes are high. All the polls indicate that Labour will win Hendon back. But Mr Offord, previously deputy leader of Barnet council, shrugs them off. “On the doorstep we’re seeing support switching from Labour to the Conservatives, but not seeing anybody drifting away,” he says. A Tory activist (who turns out to be his wife Claire) claims “the big mo” is with her husband and that Mr Dismore is “off his game”.

As the Tory team knock doors on Featherstone Road — a street of about 40 houses which could swing the result — their reception is mixed. The first house is staunchly Labour. The next is “thinking about” voting Tory.

Mr Offord later volunteers his humble origins — his father was a builder and he left school at 16 — as proof he is not from a privileged background. He makes much of living in the constituency (though he also owns a thatched cottage in a chocolate box village in Berkshire) and sharing the same woes over Thameslink and public services as thousands of constituents.

“I really feel I do live in the real world,” he says.

HOUSING is one of Mr Dismore’s top priorities. A tenacious campaigner, he was a Westminster councillor during the Shirley Porter years. We meet on the West Hendon estate, being regenerated by the council but where he claims gerrymandering is taking place. The old estate had 680 council flats. Of the 2,000 flats in the new development, there are just 242 for social rent, leaving 438 households in need of a new home.

The Tories are throwing big beasts at the seat. Justine Greening, Theresa May and Boris Johnson have all visited.

Mr Offord brings his Jack Russell, Max, on the campaign trail around Hendon, leaving the dog so exhausted he spends all afternoon asleep. He previously used Max to highlight the failings of the Human Rights Act, by threatening to use the legislation against Parliamentary authorities who refused to let him bring the dog to work. The Tory does not anticipate losing many votes to Ukip. His record shows why: he was one of 81 Tory rebels over an EU referendum in 2011 and is a practising Christian who voted against same-sex marriage.

Mr Offord has his eye firmly on the Jewish community, who make up 17 per cent of the electorate. Recent polls suggest seven in 10 Jewish voters would back the Tories, in part because of Ed Miliband’s stance on Israel and Gaza.

But Mr Dismore has a strong pro-Israel record — he helped establish Holocaust Memorial Day — and is confident he will buck the trend. “They love me,” he says. “They know I get stuff done for them. Whether they love the Labour party is another matter.” Mr Dismore doesn’t live full-time in the constituency — his family home is in Westbourne Park — but he has a flat there. “It’s going to be close,” he says. “The only election I thought I had won was the last one, which I lost, so what do I know?”

He took the loss of the seat, which he had held since 1997, badly: “It’s like a bereavement.” He bristles when I suggest he blamed everybody — former premier Gordon Brown, electoral organisation, voter complacency — but himself: “It would have been a lot worse if I hadn’t been such a good constituency MP.

“The swing against me was half the swing in London. I was not a sore loser. The election was badly run.”

But in hindsight, he says, losing was good for him. He saw first-hand how tough the job market could be until he landed a post as a benefits tribunals judge, then a seat on the London Assembly: “I actually think that’s equipped me to be a much better MP if I get back. I have much greater empathy for people.”

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