Scientists who proposed a short “circuit breaker” lockdown to delay Covid hospitalisations and deaths today admitted there may be little evidence of the measure working when temporary restrictions are lifted.
Professor Graham Medley and Professor Matt Keeling, members of a Sage sub-committee that monitors infectious diseases, suggested that a “two-week period of intense control” could reduce the pressure on the NHS.
But Professor Medley told a science briefing that the lag effect meant it would end “without seeing any significant impact on hospitalisations and deaths”.
The warning came as headteachers urged the Government for clarity over the potential two-week lockdown over half term, warning that they are working off “rumours and newspaper headlines”.
School staff warned they still do not know if pupils will be sent home for two weeks instead of one.
They said they need time to prepare work for children so they do not miss out on more learning, and to equip them with the technology they need to learn at home.
Scientists believe that using the half-term holidays as a circuit breaker “could reset things by around a month” and return the daily counts to those seen at the start of September — about 30 to 50 per cent lower than at present.
Dr Mike Tildesley, associate professor at the University of Warwick and a co-author of their research paper, said having to extend the circuit break to three or four weeks “could lose the trust of the public”.
He said: “We would expect most of the benefits to come after the circuit breaker has been released.”
Dr Tildesley admitted that it was “very possible” that more than one circuit-breaker would be required. “As soon as we pull the plug on that circuit breaker, the cases will start to go up.”
Other experts were unsure whether a circuit breaker would have the desired impact. Prof Liam Smeeth, of London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: “Introducing a longer-term approach would be positive progress, contrasting with the seemingly ad hoc almost panicked responses we see.”
