A-level results: seven per cent drop in students accepted into universities this year

 
16 August 2012

The number of students already accepted on to university courses has dropped by almost seven per cent, official figures show.

As of midnight, a total of 357,915 applicants had had their places confirmed, down from 384,649 at the same point in 2011 - a fall of 6.95%.

Mary Curnock Cook, chief executive of university admissions service Ucas, said: "More than 300,000 applicants whose places are dependent on their grades are waiting to hear if they have been accepted today.

"Despite the fall in applications this year, entry to higher education remains competitive and we expect to see an active clearing period."

More than 25,000 courses currently have vacancies for UK applicants. Last year, more than 50,000 people got a place at university through clearing.

Ms Curnock Cook went on: "It is important that all students research course requirements thoroughly and think carefully before making a decision that is likely to affect their future career.

"Anyone considering applying again next year can research 2013 courses on our website now."

Universities Minister David Willetts said the number of students going into higher education would be broadly comparable to previous years.

"There is long-term trend for more and more people to aspire to go to university and for more and more employers to look to employ people with higher education qualifications and I personally don't think, taking the long view, that trend has suddenly stopped," he told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.

"What we are seeing at the moment is there has actually been a slight decline in the number of 18-year-olds - there is a slight shrinkage in the size of that cohort - so what we are doing is we are maintaining university places broadly flat.

"There are going to be about 350,000 places in English universities this year which is comparable to the last few years."

Speaking at the UCAS call centre in Cheltenham Mr Willetts said he was not worried by the 7% drop in the number of students that have been accepted onto their university course compared to the same time last year.

"We'll have to see how things pan out during the day, but my understanding is that we've got almost 300,000 perspective students who have now had their places confirmed and I think that is great progress for this time in the day," he said.

"We will have to see how things develop, but we're optimistic that the system will work in the way that it will and that through clearing perhaps people that haven't necessarily got their university first choice are still able to secure a place."

He also insisted that despite this year's dip in applications the number of 18 year olds applying to go to university was at its second highest level.

"The very big factor (in the drop of applications) is the decline in the number of 18 year olds, because the number of young people is declining because of a fall in the birth rate about 20 years ago.

"When you look behind that, you see that the rate of applications amongst 18 years olds - the crucial group leaving school or college - is its second highest level ever and today here, after all those stories last week about people who weren't applying, I'm afraid the reality today is we are being reminded that getting to university is a competitive process, where there are still more applicants than there are places."

Reacting to fears bright students may miss out on a place at university following changes to the admissions process Mr Willetts said he was confident the clearing process would find places for most students hoping to go to university.

He said: "We will see how the system works out during the day, the clearing system is in place to help people who haven't got the grades that they hoped for and I very much hope that today we will see the UCAS clearing system come into its own and the people who haven't got the grades they were hoping for getting their places in that way."

He added the figures would be analysed by the government and by UCAS but it was too early to say if the changes had affected the number of students getting places at the university of their choice.

"I think that our reforms are going to put more power in the hands of students and of course for those who got AAB or better, now those controls have gone, they can go to the university of their choice, of course subject to the university's own capacity, beyond that it is basically the usual system that we are familiar with clearing there to help people," he added.

The figures, which come on the day that students across England, Wales and Northern Ireland receive their A-level results, also show that around 79,000 UK applicants are still awaiting decisions, and that more than 10,000 people have already applied for places through clearing.

Experts have predicted that the pass rate will stall this year, amid fresh attempts by the exams regulator to tackle grade inflation.

It has been suggested that around 8% of exams will achieve an A* and just over one in four exams will score at least an A - the same as in 2011.

In a bid to tackle rising pass rates, Ofqual has told exam boards they will be asked to justify results that differ wildly from previous years.

It means that the proportion of students awarded top grades is unlikely to increase greatly from 2011 levels.

Concerns have also been raised this year that changes to university admissions will mean that able teenagers who are predicted to score two As and a B, but just fall short, will struggle to gain a place.

Under a new system, there is now no limit on the numbers of students with two As and a B at A-level that universities can recruit, allowing them potentially to offer last-minute places to youngsters who do better than expected and meet this threshold.

But it means universities are likely to have less flexibility to admit students who just miss this standard, as there is still a strict cap on those who score less than AAB.

This year's students are already facing up to being the first to pay tuition fees of up to £9,000.

And Brian Lightman, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), said it would be a "tragedy" if bright teenagers who just missed their grades and lost out on a university place were disheartened.

Mr Lightman said it was not yet known what effect the move would have, adding that there was a risk with any change that there will be "unforeseen circumstances".

Students predicted to score three As and get AAB could benefit, and despite missing their grades, still gain a place, he said.

Asked if there will be students who miss out on places, Mr Lightman said that happens every year.

"When you are talking about those sorts of high grades, A and two Bs, people scoring those sorts of grades - for those to be disheartened would be a tragedy and we must do everything we can to enable them to get their place," he said.

"My advice to students would be don't give up, to look at the options that are open, and there are still plenty of opportunities out there."

Mr Lightman said that there were concerns over the lack of advice and guidance for young people in some parts of the country.

"We will call on the Government to make the national career service a face-to-face service accessible to students who are of school age.

"At the moment it is only available to those over 19.

"In many parts of the country it is not available. Schools will do what they can but it is something that's really missing."

He added: "With all the other changes that have been indicated for qualifications and the curriculum in the future, it (careers advice) is of vital importance that it can't be left to a postcode lottery."

Dr Mary Bousted, general secretary of the Association of Teachers and Lecturers (ATL), said the UK has one of the "fairest and most respected" exams systems in the world, but that changes need to be made to reflect students' knowledge and skills.

"We need a rigorous, robust and fully independent exam system which is open to scrutiny and totally free from political interference. A-levels and GCSEs should not be subject to the whims of whoever happens to be the Education Secretary," she said.

"We hope all students are fairly rewarded for their hard work and their A-level grades reflect their achievements over the past two years.

"It would be grossly unfair if this year's students have been penalised in an attempt to make the exams appear tougher."

Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment at Buckingham University, has predicted that the proportion of exams awarded an A* will rise only slightly, from 8.2% in 2011 to around 8.3%.

"This year, it could go either way, but I am guessing that Ofqual will hold the percentage of A*-A close to 27%, but because there are good reasons for it happening, allow the percentage of A* to increase say to 8.3%," Prof Smithers said.

He suggested that overall pass rates will not rise dramatically, with "just over a quarter getting A*-A, half getting A*-B and three quarters A*-C".

In 2011, 52.6% of A-level exams achieved at least a B, and 76.2% got at least a C grade.

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