How likely is it that passengers will be quarantined for two weeks after entering UK?

Travellers may have to quarantine for two weeks on arrival to UK - but why hasn't this been implemented sooner?
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Over the weekend, Dominic Raab confirmed that proposals to introduce a mandatory two-week quarantine for travellers entering the UK were ‘under consideration’.

At present, there are no health checks at airports or ports for passengers arriving into the UK.

Other countries have already put this regulation in place, and it's proved successful. After acting early, New Zealand has lowered its new daily cases to single figures - there was just one new COVID-19 case on Sunday, while Norway put the mandatory two-week quarantine in place in mid-March and in early April the country announced it had the virus ‘under control’, lowering its number of new cases from 425 on March 27 to 59 on April 25.

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The UK is one of the only countries which hasn’t closed its borders. Last week, health secretary Matt Hancock said the equivalent of 105,000 travellers were still landing in the UK each week, equating to 15,000 people per day. All of whom have no screening for coronavirus and no enforced quarantine, including the 200,000 or so Brits who have been repatriated from Spain.

How would the mandatory quarantine work in the UK?

The new quarantine regulations would see any passengers who arrive in the UK (either by air, rail or sea) self-isolate for 14 days at a prearranged address. Passengers would need to give this address to authorities who would conduct spot checks to ensure they are remaining at said location.

How likely is it that it will be introduced?

While the regulation is still ‘under consideration’, transport secretary, Grant Shapps said a policy could be introduced when COVID-19 cases were beginning to drop in the UK as the regulation would help to prevent a second spike in infections.

The Independent reports that we could be waiting until mid-May for it to be introduced and, if it is, these quarantine regulations would likely last for ‘months’ not weeks.

Why has this policy not been introduced sooner?

By not closing its borders, the UK has set itself apart from the 130 countries who have. Analysis from the Pew Research Centre found that 90 per cent of the global population lives in countries with restrictions on travellers entering the country, while 39 per cent of the global population live in countries that have been completely closed to foreign entrants.

Professor Gabriel Scally, president of epidemiology and public health at the Royal Society of Medicine, told the FT: “The UK is an outlier. It is very hard to understand why it persists in having this open borders policy. It is most peculiar.”

What would the implications be for the travel industry?

With a two-week mandatory quarantine upon arrival to the UK, it could certainly deter foreign travellers from visiting as well as stop domestic travellers from making trips overseas once lockdown and travel bans ease.

Airlines, hotels, and travel companies hoping to see a spike in bookings later in the year could see it remain closer to zero if the quarantine regulations were enforced for several months.

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