UBM cheers with New Year cracker

LORD Hollick's United Business Media sent analysts scurrying to upgrade their full-year forecasts today with a trading update that was much better than expected.

UBM shares, which have recovered from a low of 190p in March, today gained 9 1/2p to 490p.

With only a month to go to its year-end, UBM said second-half revenues would be ahead of last year's and margins would be higher than the first half 's 12.2% and well ahead of the 10% achieved during 2002.

Analysts, who upped their profit forecasts after a strong first half, today moved their pre-tax estimates for the year up by at least 10% from a consensus of £90.8m to almost £100m.

UBM's publishing and exhibitions divisions fared best. The market research arm NOP improved its margins despite being hit by restructuring charges.

Only PR Newswire, the distributor of corporate news, was static, its lack of growth reflecting a paucity of mergers and acquisitions. However, it has shown growth in volumes and yields since the beginning of November. Acquisitions including the Builder Group and Auto Exchange have been integrated quickly.

Geographically, UBM said that trading conditions had improved in the US while Asia had recovered strongly with almost all the profit lost to the Sars virus outbreak regained through a £3.8m insurance payout.

The UK publishing and events businesses performed strongly.

TV's Channel Five, which made its first operating profit in the first half, continued to perform well in the second half, delivering further improvements in advertising share and operating profits, said UBM.

Hollick insists he is not a forced seller of UBM's 35% stake in Five. The other 65% is held by pan-European broadcaster RTL. He believes the Communications Act gives the group many more options in what it can do with its stake.

UBM also said it is buying Italy's third-largest market research company Eurisko for e33m (£23.2m), filling in one of the gaps in NOP's network.

Eurisko operates in the automotive, financial services, healthcare and media sectors. Last year it had revenues of e28m and earnings before interest and tax of e4m.

Hollick said: 'Eurisko complements NOP's existing sector strategies and gives us a leading position in one of the major European markets.'

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