Left hook from an old pro shows this heavyweight fight is wide open

Although Boris HQ says complacent supporters needed a wake-up call, today's poll must have given the Mayor a sickly knot in his stomach.

For the first time in four years, there is a serious possibility of having to hand back his crown to its previous owner.

For Livingstone it is a pleasing moment - proof that there is life in the old pro's left hook.

But Ken is far too experienced to get over-excited about a two-point lead, a gap well within the margin of error.

Cool heads note that January has been Labour's most intensive month of campaigning so far, with 1,000 activists shoving out leaflets against the new year fares increases. If the fares issue fades, so might their lead.

The cold fact is that there is now a real battle on, and every vote counts. Turnout on May 3 will be absolutely critical with the polls this close.

Ultimately, the winner will be the man who gets his supporters off the sofa and into the voting booths.

"Thank goodness it was not another eight point lead," joked one of Mr Johnson's staff, meaning that some Boris backers were being lulled into a false sense of security. The danger is not imaginary - our poll finds that Londoners by more than two to one think that the Mayor will get a second term.

In terms of issues, Johnson is ahead on running the economy, representing London overseas and - by a big two-to-one margin - on squeezing the best deal out of his friends in central government.

Fares are Livingstone's key issue, but the 38 per cent who are more likely to vote for him because of the new year rises may just reflect Labour's core vote.

He is ahead as the candidate who knows most about the concerns of "ordinary Londoners", which reinforces other research that found Ken was seen as more "in touch". More surprising, only 30 per cent dislike Johnson because of the Government's spending cuts. Ken's campaign to "Tory-ise" the Boris brand has yet to succeed.

Alas for Brian Paddick, he is not breaking through.

The ex-policeman is even behind on fighting crime, and only two per cent trust him most on the economy.

But the fight is wide open between the frontrunners. A race that some thought was all over is heading for a photo finish.