Labour facing Scottish defeat as SNP heads for power

A new poll has shown the SNP is barreling towards control of the Scottish Parliament - though just 27 per cent of Scots want full independence
13 April 2012

The SNP has a clear lead over Labour in the looming Scottish election, according to a new poll.

Nationalists are well ahead of Labour in the battle for constituency and regional seats on May 3, and are set to be the biggest single party at Holyrood, the figures suggest.

But the poll also found most Scots want Scotland to stay in the UK, albeit with more powers for Holyrood.

Just 27 per cent believe Scotland should be a fully independent state, according to the Populus poll for The Times.

But the scale of the SNP lead - 10 points ahead in the constituency vote and seven points ahead in the regional vote - is likely to set alarm balls ringing in the Labour camp.

Its campaign so far has placed much emphasis on dire warnings that voting SNP could lead to independence.

But these figures suggest this is not working as a scare tactic.

And the high numbers backing the SNP but not independence could mean the Nationalists are the beneficiaries of a big anti-Labour protest vote.

Labour's Scottish health minister, Andy Kerr, said in response to the figures: "This poll shows that there is a clear choice between building Scotland with Labour and breaking up Britain with the SNP.

"Sustained attack from Labour has led to support for independence almost halving in less than a month - down to just 27 per cent - because Scottish families fear the risk of the SNP's core policy.

"Over the coming weeks we will focus on the £11 billion black hole at the heart of the SNP's spending plans and the £5,000 tax hike that they will impose on Scottish families every year.

"Tax will be the dividing line of this election. You don't get the SNP without independence - and you don't get independence without a cost."

The SNP said the poll showed its "positive" policies to make Scotland more successful reflected the Scottish mood.

"The poll also shows that Labour's negative campaign is rebounding on them," said deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon.

"Gordon Brown's tax-con Budget has bombed in Scotland."

She went on: "The SNP are pledged to scrap the council tax, and Labour's attacks on the SNP in defence of this iniquitous tax is a spectacular own-goal.

"Labour's unfair council tax and the SNP policy for fair local tax will be a major campaign issue.

"It is a big winner for the SNP in this election - overwhelmingly, people back the SNP in wanting to axe the council tax."

Ms Sturgeon said: "For the first time, the SNP are going into the election campaign with a clear lead.

"That gives us encouragement, but we are taking nothing for granted and will work harder than ever before over the next 36 days to earn the trust and confidence of the Scottish people."

The figures are said to be the best of any published poll rating for the SNP since 2005 - and the worst for Labour since last June.

The telephone poll of 1,000 adults was conducted from March 21-25, a period spanning the Budget and its aftermath.

In the constituency vote, the SNP was running at 38 per cent to Labour's 28 per cent, the Liberal Democrats' 15 per cent, the Tories 14 per cent and 6 per cent for others.

In the regional vote the SNP are running at 35 per cent to Labour's 30 per cent, the Liberal Democrats' 14 per cent, the Tories 14 per cent, and 7 per cent for others.

These figures, Populus calculates, would make the SNP the biggest single party with 50 seats compared to 43 for Labour, 18 for the Liberal Democrats, 17 for the Tories and one for the Greens.

This would be enough for the SNP and the Liberals to form a coalition, if they could get over the stumbling block of the Liberal Democrats' insistence that they could not back an independence referendum.

When asked for their views on Scotland's future, 52 per cent of those polled by Populus thought the country should remain part of the UK but with more powers to run its own affairs, and just 27 per cent favoured complete independence.

Twelve per cent thought the current arrangements for devolution worked well.

And six per cent thought too much power had already been devolved to Holyrood.

Other figures in the poll contradict previous survey findings which put SNP leader Alex Salmond ahead as a potential First Minister.

The Populus figures give Jack McConnell and Mr Salmond 27 per cent each followed by 10 per cent for Tory leader Annabel Goldie and five per cent for Lib Dem leader Nicol Stephen.

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