Is online betting a sure thing?

Lydia Hislop12 April 2012

Many a journalist-cum-tipster has been heard to utter: "If I always picked the winner, would I still be doing this job?"

You may not believe it, but gamblers have their rules. Mine are: (1) never back odds-on, (2) never back on changed going, (3) be selective, (4) limit off-course gambling largely to ante-post bets (don't bet on what you can't see) and (5) never chase your losses.

Three days ago, I broke all five. This sorry tale of luckless laying came when I made my first, halting steps into the brave new world of person-to-person betting.

The premise was this: betfair, the betting-exchange market leader, put up £500 - any profits going to charity - for me to demonstrate how this fast-growing concept works.

This was communication director Mark Davies's entire budget: no more lunches for him if I lost.

Exchanges are not bookmakers. Odds for an event are set not by them, but their customers.

They merely match offers and manage accounts, deducting total liability before the 'off ' to ensure the winner is paid. No money upfront, no bet.

For this, betfair charges between two and five per cent of total winnings, on a sliding downward scale rewarding customer loyalty - the more bets you place, the less commission you pay.

Launched in June 2000, it merged with its chief UK market rival, flutter, last December and now turns over £14.5 million a week.

My dry run with £50 of the total bank last week went well. I'd 'laid' - by acting as a bookmaker for others on horses I deemed could not win (the unique selling point of betting exchanges) - two short-priced horses who duly lost and backed Chelsea to beat West Ham (thank you John Terry's stoppage-time winner).

That gave me a cushion of £18.05 profit for Monday morning - the real thing. Come midnight, I was still sitting at my computer screen.

I started small - my first mistake. Rain had altered Hereford's going to heavy and its opener was possibly the worst race ever.

Plumpton's first appealed more - only four horses could win, I thought.

Dark Society and Royal Cayras seemed ungenuine, but Tremezzo and Sonny Jim might not like testing ground.

Betfair was a frenzy of activity, concentrated on this quartet which were available at prices slightly longer than forecast. With a minute to go, I had to choose something, anything. Pathetically, I put £10 on Sonny Jim at 6-1. Seconds after I accepted 6-1, 7-1 was offered.

Things move fast on betfair - faster than my computer, in fact - and it's harder to gauge the 'mood' of the betting ring, whether a horse is widely on the drift or being backed, when sitting at home rather than being on course.

Novice punters may find the screen quite intimidating, with two main columns - 'to back' and 'to lay' - for every runner and up to three prices offered in each. Small stakes are advisable for your first exchange bet.

Odds are expressed in decimals - more confusing to the conditioned gambler who expects fractions than the computer-literate generation. But there is a useful conversion table.

Before your bet is accepted, you're asked to confirm your intentions and the potential return or loss is displayed.

This excellent feature prevents novicey errors, but doubtless delays more practised users.

I resisted the temptation to lay in this trappy race, but it was startling how many people had the courage - or liquidity - to do so. Bookmakers use this site to lay off their liabilities - something Customs are monitoring.

But some within racing fear this laying facility threatens the sport's integrity, easily abused by the unscrupulous who, for some reason, may know for certain that a horse can't win.

Betfair refutes this, pointing to its rigorous clientele checks and close monitoring of betting patterns.

Back at my flat, five agonising minutes later, Ceefax flashed up Sonny Jim the winner, returned at 6-1 - a full point shorter than betfair's best. From my £60 winnings, betfair took £3 commission. I was the proud holder of £75.05 profit. That was as good as it got.

Emboldened, I planned to put £50 on Sigma Comms, also laying dodgy jumper Asparagus and serial loser Sandoran - all three in Hereford's third race.

But frustratingly the site went down for 19 minutes, forcing me to miss it. My selection didn't win, but neither did the other two.

I soon learned the crash merely postponed my agony.

In Hereford's fourth, I laid Buddy's Toy on the basis she had more weight than her recent form merited. Her trainer, who hadn't saddled a winner in almost a month, chose this moment to stop the rot.

For the sake of £20, I'd lost £210. Profit wiped and then some. My scorched fingers didn't lay another horse.

Picturing a skeletal Davies, I surveyed the remaining six races with mounting panic.

The Leader was a weak favourite in a weak race. Positive tactics from Harem Scarem would surely undo him. I took all £22 offered at 5-1 and another £28 at 4.2-1. Sod Ceefax - I had to listen to the live commentary line for this.

The Leader threatened briefly at the last - apologies to my neighbours for the throttled screams - but Harem Scarem (opened 3-1 on course, returned 4-1) won by six lengths, netting a much-needed £227.60.

Minutes later, I was yelling "I love you, Polly" as the commentator told us Miss P. Gundry had "injected some telling pace" on Dancetillyoudrop at Plumpton. Another £52.50 to the good.

But, when the excitement faded, I'd had little better than an evens on a horse that touched 5-4 on course, but only 6-5 on betfair.

Against my better judgment, I ploughed on. Prices were good, bets not.

Logic told me to leave Romford's greyhounds alone. But, squinting at my screen in the darkened room, I shortlisted four races and was buoyed by second, win, second when financially uninvolved. Of course, my £40 actual bet finished last.

After pouring over the women's downhill and men's curling at the Winter Olympics, I gave up, exhausted and £191.86 down.

Yet, unaccountably, I found myself toying with tennis bets on the Marseilles Open at 7am the next day.

Can anyone tell me, did Max Mirnyi beat Yevgeny Kafelnikov?

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