Armageddon Britain: A detailed insight into how a terrorist attack on Britain could happen any day without warning

13 April 2012

The order came from the mountains of North Waziristan, the bleak, lawless tribal area of Pakistan which borders Afghanistan, where the leaders of Al Qaeda have spent the past five years hiding, rebuilding and planning their next atrocities.


Earlier this week the Government's terrorism adviser, Lord Carlile QC, warned there was 'real anxiety' that private jets might be used as 'vehicle bombs' in terrorist attacks on Britain.  But what form would such attacks take? Best-selling thriller writer Tom Cain, whose latest book centres on just such a plot, has talked to defence experts, academics, military personnel, atomic scientists and civil servants to create a chilling picture of what might happen . . .

It was given by the leader, known to his followers as The Sheik  -  a tall, slender figure with long beard and soft brown eyes  -  whose ruthless tactics had become known, and feared, the whole world over.

The plan was made possible by the 40kg of enriched, weapons-grade uranium 235 that The Sheik's most trusted associates had bought, at a cost of $150 million, with the profits of the opium trade that was flourishing once more.

This week the Government's terrorism adviser, Lord Carlile QC, warned there was 'real anxiety' that private jets might be used as 'vehicle bombs' in terrorist attacks on Britain

This week the Government's terrorism adviser, Lord Carlile QC, warned there was 'real anxiety' that private jets might be used as 'vehicle bombs' in terrorist attacks on Britain

As for the origins of 'the cargo', there was dispute even among the best-informed rumour-mongers of Waziristan.

Some said the uranium had come from the Iranian nuclear plant at Natanz. Others believed it was from North Korea, or even dissident elements in the Russian Federation.

Whatever the source, though, the outcome was the same.

The 'real and imminent' threat to which Mohammed al Baradei, chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, had alerted the world in June 2004, had finally come true.

Al Qaeda had acquired the means, and the technical know-how, to build a crude, simple, but brutally effective nuclear bomb.

And now they intended to deliver it.

Before the bomb had even been completed, rumours of its existence had reached MI6, and been considered, analysed and then dismissed.

This was to prove a catastrophically foolhardy decision, but it was not an irrational one.

Rumours of rogue nukes had been doing the rounds for almost 20 years since the breakup of the old Soviet Union. Yet no bomb had ever been uncovered, let alone detonated.

A terrorist attack on Parliament could bring Britain to its knees and Tom Cain says the Labour Government would be voted out within a year

A terrorist attack on Parliament could bring Britain to its knees and Tom Cain says the Labour Government would be voted out within a year

For policy makers, forced to work with limited resources, the key consideration was the balance of probability.

And the most probable scenarios, in terms of attacks on the UK mainland, involved disaffected British citizens, using conventional weapons, delivered by groundbased vehicles.

Lord Carlile, the Government's terrorism adviser, might warn of the threat from the air, but the professionals were not convinced.

A rogue pilot would require military-level skills of high-speed, low-level flying to reach any high-profile target in British airspace.

A truck, on the other hand, was a far more reliable delivery platform. It could be driven direct to its target without anyone being any the wiser. But what if the attacker did not wish to be anonymous?

What if  -  as on 9/11  -  global visibility was the whole point of the exercise? The attack on Britain, when it came, would be very visible indeed.

Anyone with £10million to spare can go online and buy a one or two-year-old Cessna Citation X, the fastest nonmilitary aircraft in the world, nearly capable of reaching the speed of sound.

Older models can be found for sale for as little as £5million  -  with only a few clicks on a computer mouse.

So it was that a respectable Jordanian businessman bought a five-year-old Citation for a little over £7million.

He immediately sold it on to an equally respectable Egyptian, whose connection to Al Qaeda dated back more than a decade, when  -  undetected by the authorities  -  he had been a member of its brother organisation, Egyptian Islamic Jihad.

No security checks were made at any stage of the purchase.

Buying an aeroplane is no different to buying a car in that respect. In the UK, the seller and buyer simply have to inform the Civil Aviation Authority of the transfer of ownership.

There is a 30-day time-limit within which that information must be provided. A man with a plane, and lethal intent, can do an awful lot of damage in those 30 days.

It is technically possible to turn an executive jet into an aircraft capable of dropping a bomb.

A hydraulically operated hatch in the belly of the plane, hinged at the front to minimise drag, would not be difficult to install.

Al Qaeda had no need of bomb hatches, however, for The Sheik had a far simpler, more reliable means of getting his bomb to its target: a man willing to die.

The suicide pilot was a former Iraqi Air Force officer, radicalised by extremist Sunni Muslim preachers and then filled with bitter hatred for Britain by the deaths of his wife and children during a firefight between British Army troops and insurgent militiamen in Basra.

The twin towers of the World Trade Center burning on September 11 - now a chief terror adviser has revealed that the risk of it happening again is now even more real

The twin towers of the World Trade Center burning on September 11 - now a chief terror adviser has revealed that the risk of it happening again is now even more real

The pilot would be accompanied by a co-pilot and passenger, purportedly a wealthy Saudi oil trader.

He was, in fact, a weapons technician, a follower of Al Qaeda who had trained under the rogue Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan, there to nursemaid the bomb he had helped create.

As for the nuke itself, it was the most basic form of 'gun-barrel' design. The 40kg of enriched uranium had been divided into two large slugs, placed at either end of a metal tube.

When triggered, one of the slugs would be fired by conventional explosives down the tube like a bullet, straight at the other slug.

A ring of another metal, beryllium, wrapped around the far end of the barrel, would reflect and concentrate the force of the impact, creating the critical mass required for a nuclear explosion.

This bomb was a puny weapon, by nuclear standards. Its blast was a mere kiloton  -  equivalent to 1,000 tons of TNT  -  less than one-tenth of the power unleashed on Hiroshima in August 1945.

Yet it would still destroy almost all buildings, vehicles and their occupants in a 600-yard radius, and cause further damage and casualties for up to two miles in every direction.

The nuclear fall-out spread by the blast could then render wide areas uninhabitable for years, and cause potentially fatal damage to any human who breathed it in.

As with the attacks on New York on September 11, 2001, a target was chosen to cause maximum panic and publicity.

Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, who, as Chief of the Defence Staff would be vital to the Prime Minister in a terrorist alert

Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, who, as Chief of the Defence Staff would be vital to the Prime Minister in a terrorist alert

Initially, the Canary Wharf Tower had been selected. But The Sheik had considered it too similar to New York's Twin Towers. Why mimic previous successes?

He wanted something different, something even closer to the heart of the British establishment.

His choice? The Houses of Parliament. That single kiloton would devastate Britain politically, financially and psychologically, bringing an infidel nation to its knees before the power of The Sheik's perverted distortion of Islam.

The bomb was smuggled over the borders of Pakistan, into Tajikistan. At an airport near the Tajik capital of Dushanbe, it was loaded onto the waiting Citation.

On a Wednesday morning at 9.30am, local time, the plane took off, routed to Farnborough airport, south-west of London, with a refuelling stop at Cannes Mandelieu in the South of France.

Both airports specialise in private aviation, and anyone is entitled to request a landing, if a slot is available. The formalities are negligible.

It is obligatory to inform UK Customs of any arrival from abroad.

But as long as both plane and pilot are properly licensed there are no further security checks.

Once a landing slot has been confirmed, the pilot is simply given a designated flight path to follow. It is scarcely any more difficult than driving a car across Europe.

At a cruising speed of 625mph, the flight to Cannes took a mere five hours, arriving shortly before 11.30am, Central European Time.

The plane spent just half an hour on the ground, refuelling.

The passengers did not disembark, so there was no need for a Customs inspection.

The bomb lay undisturbed at the rear of the passenger compartment, sitting in a wooden crate about 4ft long.

By noon, local time, 11am in the UK, the plane was en route for Farnborough, 600 miles away.

Forty minutes into the flight, the weapons technician checked the bomb one final time. It appeared to be in perfect working order.

He prayed he would have the courage to depress the trigger when the time came, thereby causing his own annihilation, and that of the entire political class of the United Kingdom.

Security chiefs believe that the Houses of Parliament would be one of the main targets for terrorist bombers

Security chiefs believe that the Houses of Parliament would be one of the main targets for terrorist bombers

The Queen was in residence at Buckingham Palace. Less than a mile away from Westminster, she and her servants would probably perish along with everyone else, including the 400 or so MPs who were making their way into the Commons chamber for Prime Minister's Questions.

The London Area Control Centre at Swanwick, Hants, handles almost two million flights a year over southern England.

Air traffic controllers were beginning the routine process of bringing the Citation in to land at Farnborough, along its assigned flight path.

As it crossed the South Coast of England, the plane descended and slowed as expected.

But then, 20 miles out of Farnborough, it veered north-east, heading directly towards London.

The Citation dipped down to 5,000ft. Then it began picking up speed.

The airspace over London and its airports forms a restricted zone that covers much of South-East England.

No airplane may enter it unless authorised to do so by air traffic control. Any unauthorised entry, or deviation from a designated flight path, leads to immediate action.

So it was that one of the controllers at Swanwick, tracking the Citation through the identification code which every aircraft transmits, radioed the pilot and ordered him to return to his prescribed flightpath.

There was no response. The controller tried again. Still no reply. So he followed the protocol laid down for intrusions into the restricted zone.

Just as the leader of the Opposition rose in the House to ask his first question, a call was made from Swanwick to RAF Coningsby, in Lincolnshire: 'We've got a QRA situation.'

The letters stand for Quick Reaction Alert. The RAF officer did not wait for any further explanation. By the time the Prime Minister had begun his reply, the officer had given the order to scramble.

The account of how Britain could react to a terrorist bomb says that the Queen could well be in residence at Buckingham Palace if it happened

The account of how Britain could react to a terrorist bomb says that the Queen could well be in residence at Buckingham Palace if it happened

Three minutes later, a pair of 'Eurofighter' Typhoon jets from 3 (Fighter) Squadron were blasting into the air, climbing at more than 1,000ft a second before setting their course to cover the 134 miles south to London.

And now the race began. Flying at a top speed of 1,400 mph, the fighters had to intercept the intruder. Had the pilot made a mistake? Was there a technical problem on the plane? Or was something more sinister afoot? No one knew the answer to that.

British bureaucracy often moves at a pace that makes snails look like racing cheetahs. But not now.

Messages were sped to the Ministry of Defence, Home and Foreign Offices, intelligence services and the Prime Minister's office in a well-rehearsed drill.

Barely a minute had passed before the PM's chief of staff came bursting into the Commons, ignoring the garbled Glaswegian admonishments from the Speaker's chair, and rushed to his master.

The Prime Minister frowned in concentration as he took in what his aide was telling him, muttered a few words of reply and then, with a brief apology, hurried towards the exit.

As he went, he grabbed a mobile phone. He was about to make the biggest decision of his political life. And he had less than five minutes in which to make it.

In the Citation, the atmosphere had changed from one of expectancy and confidence to gut-wrenching tension.

The pilot was following the A3 dual carriageway that runs north into London. His course thus bisected the airspace between Heathrow and Gatwick.

As he crossed the M25, travelling at 500mph, he pressed the intercom and spoke to the men in the passenger compartment.

'Three minutes to target. Good luck, my brothers, and may the mercy and blessing of God be with you.'

In the RAF Typhoons, the atmosphere was just as tense. They were still 60 miles north of central London.

By now, the fighters' datafusion systems, by far the most advanced of any aircraft anywhere, had acquired the target and were providing the pilots with a detailed, three-dimensional picture of the crowded skies around them.

Their role was officially defined as follows: 'To detect, deter or destroy any aircraft intending to attack any target within the UK.'

All they needed was an order. And that had to come from the top.

The Prime Minister was not a man to make hasty decisions. He liked to consider an issue from every angle, to brood over its political implications.

Now though, as he sat in his armoured Jaguar XJ V8 being whisked away to a bomb shelter deep below Whitehall  -  an urgent matter of business, his officials were assuring the media, but nothing to get worked up about  -  he had to make up his mind in an instant.

The advice from the intelligence services was ambiguous. Yes, they had been passed information that Al Qaeda was planning a nuclear attack on the West, and this might be it.

But they were dealing with unconfirmed rumour. They had no proof either way.

The diplomats of the Foreign Office, steeped in decades of languid appeasement, naturally counselled caution.

Any hostile moves against an Egyptian-owned jet would be seen as an act of war in the Arab world, inflaming Muslim opinion still further against the UK.

Now the voice of the squadron leader commanding the Typhoons crackled over the line. 'Target in range. Awaiting orders.'

The Typhoons carried AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles, capable of locking onto and destroying a target more than 40 miles away.

That distance was closing by the second. Soon, they would switch to the short-range AIM-132 ASRAAM, designed for close-quarters combat.

The Citation's pilot had practised his approach countless times on computer simulators.

He raced over the suburbs of south-west London, dropping all the time, until he hit the River Thames and banked hard to the right, bringing the plane round to follow the line of the river all the way to his target.

Top-class military pilots, aided by an array of computer systems, are able to fly at virtual ground level at speeds in excess of 400mph.

An executive jet, however, is not designed for low-level flying, and the pilot had nothing to help him find his target but his eyes. Even at 200mph, he was stretching his abilities to the limit.

'What should I do?' The Prime Minister's question was aimed at Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, who, as Chief of the Defence Staff, was the professional head of the British Armed Forces.

Before he could answer, another message came through from the Typhoons.

'We have visual contact. My God, he's coming right at you! Request permission to fire.'

They were so close, racing over the bridges that spanned the Thames. A plaintive call came from the terrified man with the nuclear trigger in his hand, a single word: 'When?'

'Wait,' snapped the pilot. 'Just a few seconds more.'

The Air Chief Marshal thought for less than five seconds. Not so many years ago, the very thought of destroying a civilian aircraft over a major city would have been inconceivable.

But 9/11 had changed everything. Both military men and civilians now understood what such a plane could do.

It was thus a balance between the lives of a handful of likely terrorists, and a mass of innocent civilians. And that was no choice at all.

'Give the order, Sir,' he said. 'Do it,' said the Prime Minister.

'Now!' screamed the terrorist pilot, as he flung his plane into its final death dive.

The sudden movement took the weapons technician by surprise. For a moment, his sweat-soaked palms lost their grip of the bomb control.

It slipped on to his lap. He reached down to retrieve it, and at that precise moment the 10kg warheads of two AIM-132 missiles slammed into the Citation, blowing it apart in mid-air and destroying the bomb before it could be detonated.

The bulk of the plane's shattered fuselage and wings plunged into the river between Lambeth and Westminster bridges, just yards from Parliament.

Yet many razor-sharp fragments, some several feet across, crashed into the bridges and the buildings on both sides of the river, including St Thomas's Hospital.

A dozen people were killed and more than 100 injured, but a far greater catastrophe had been averted.

The bomb was destroyed before it could detonate, and the slugs of uranium 235, which emits only relatively low levels of radiation in its normal state, disappeared beneath the water, leaving no trace behind them.

Footage of the high-speed chase between the RAF Typhoons and the renegade executive jet had been captured on countless videocams and mobile phones. The first clips were on YouTube within minutes.

The major TV channels switched to round-the-clock news coverage, playing and replaying the footage again and again, interviewing anyone with an opinion to give or an axe to grind.

At first, the public accepted the official account, that a terrorist attack had been foiled. Slowly, however, the mood turned.

Al Qaeda immediately denied any involvement and The Sheik insisted, on a grainy, low-quality video, that the plane was part of a secret plot by the enemies of Islam to justify the West's increasingly desperate military actions in Afghanistan and the Middle East.

Absurd as it was, the conspiracy theory nonetheless gained widespread credence. As riots began across the Middle East and the first cars began to burn on the streets of Bradford, many insisted that we British, not our imagined enemies, were truly to blame.

Nor did the beleaguered Prime Minister gain any credit at home for having averted catastrophe.

After all, wasn't it his party whose follies in Iraq had made Britain more vulnerable to such attacks? His government fell before the year was out.

Royal Navy divers recovered the uranium shortly after 1am on the night after the crash. The public were never informed that the plane had, indeed, been carrying a nuclear bomb. Well, it wouldn't do to spread alarm, nor reveal just how close Britain had come to catastrophe. Would it?

  • Ton Cain's new thriller, The Survivor, will be published by Bantam Press on July 28.

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