A risky January battle for the Lib-Dems

12 April 2012

The Liberal Democrats are able today, for once, to lay claim to a policy victory, with the Coalition's decision to exempt asylum-seeking families with children from being kept in detention centres prior to deportation.

They should make the most of it. The perception that the party has sold out over tuition fees, and the exodus of celebrity supporters from its ranks, for the moment overshadow the gains of entering government.

It all makes the decision to bring forward the date of the by-election in Oldham to January 13 seem risky for the Coalition. By mid-January, student anger at tuition fee rises will be undiminished. And in a three-way contest with Labour and the Tories, it will be difficult for a party in coalition with one of its opponents to maintain its identity and fighting spirit.

There is likely to be more trouble for the party in May's local council elections. This is when the party usually does well but, given the perception that they are the fall guys of the Coalition, the reverse may be true this time.

More important will be the referendum on changing the voting system to the AV model: if the Lib-Dems and their allies on the issue cannot win, many in the party's grassroots, especially, will wonder if this year's compromises were worth it.

Yet the Lib-Dems could not feasibly have formed a coalition with Labour. It was always going to be a junior partner in any coalition, with limited leverage when it came to striking deals on policy. And the party has gained something from entering into government — not least the greater sense of responsibility that comes from having to take decisions rather than oppose those of others.

It has had little credit for its real gains, such as progress towards raising the tax threshold to exclude poorer workers and the pensions-wages link.

In the coming year, the Lib-Dems will have a fight on their hands to avoid the worst outcome of coalition, whereby they get blamed for unpopular policies and lose credit to the Tories for its gains. But in the choice between being in power and out of power, the party made the right call. It now needs to show greater discipline and cohesiveness if it is to survive government.

Jobs challenge

Yesterday's jobless figures from the Office for National Statistics, showing an increase over the last three months of 35,000, are disheartening.

The rise in unemployment by 33,000 in the public sector is gloomy, if predictable. What is embarrassing for ministers is that the private sector has not generated sufficient jobs to compensate for many of the losses. Given the slight but significant rise in inflation this week, the economic outlook seems as bright as the weather.

Plainly worse is to come: spending cuts will translate into further job losses in the New Year. Ministers can only trust that by containing rises in public spending they will hearten private sector companies about the long-term economic prospects enough to give them the confidence to employ more people. Here's hoping.

Ashes in our grasp

England's encouraging start in the third Ashes Test in Perth, dismissing Australia for 268 on the first day, is cause for celebration, featuring fine bowling and some astonishing catching.

Win this Test and the Ashes will stay in our hands whatever the results of the final two Tests — completing a great year for English cricket.

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