Penny Mordaunt declares as the race for No 10 hots up

Imagine for a moment you are a Conservative MP. Who should you vote for as leader? Well, I presume you are still looking to hold your seat at the next election, which for entirely apolitical reasons should in no circumstances take place before January 2025.

Why did you win last time? It probably wasn’t because of your strong personal vote, let’s be honest. But your leader, Boris Johnson, had a winning issue, in Brexit, and a historically unpopular opponent, in Jeremy Corbyn. There’s no shame in being lucky, but these two factors no longer apply.

Given that it’s tough to make predictions – especially about the future – I’d be tempted to vote for the person most likely to bring mortgage rates down. Voters don’t like incompetence or U-turns. But they take a particularly dim view of parties that cause their mortgage repayments to spike.

Important health warning before we go any further: it is difficult to assign market movements to specific political events. Too much happens at once, and the markets operate on vibes like the rest of us. But yields on UK government bonds are rising today as the idea of a return to office by Boris Johnson gathers pace. David Buik, the veteran City commentator is clear about the trigger for the moves, which also hit sterling.

This is in part because Johnson is keener on public spending than Rishi Sunak. But it’s also about the sheer instability the markets fear. Johnson, you will recall, was forced out of office when more than 50 ministers resigned from his government. He has a Privileges Committee investigation hanging over him, which could lead to his suspension from the Commons and ultimately a by-election in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency. And he left office with approval ratings of minus 44, according to Ipsos.

The markets don’t care about personalities or how many children the prime minister has. They’re not even particularly interested in whether they are funding the spending plans of a Labour or Tory government. What they want is their money back, with interest. And if they believe that to be a riskier proposition, they’ll charge more.

Of course, it could be that by this point, it doesn’t really matter who leads the Conservative Party which, after 12 years in government, has simply ceased to function as a coherent entity. While in the past it was a fairly manageable schism between wets and dries, now we’ve got:

I’ve only made one of these up, honest.

It should matter who leads the largest party. Character, leadership, and policy preferences are bread and butter stuff. If they cease to be, then the problem runs far deeper than who is in charge, and can only be solved not by yet another internal selection but a general election.

In the comment pages, Emily Sheffield fears the return of chaotic Boris, but at least that lettuce beat Truss. Business Editor Jonathan Prynn says endless Downing Street mayhem has killed Britain’s precious ‘dullness dividend’. While I have a confession to make – I sometimes do laps of my flat to hit my steps target for the day.

And finally, well thanks for the invite. ES Magazine parties with Paco Rabanne and Groove Armada, also featuring some pampered pooches and London’s most glamorous smoking area.

Have a lovely weekend.

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