The World Economic Forum starts in Davos today.
The usual crowd of business leaders, celebrities and politicians is joined this year by Donald Trump — who combines all three. He will be congratulating himself on the big upgrade to US growth forecasts for this year, powered by his impressive tax cut package.
Indeed, the global elite is more than usually satisfied with itself as for the first time since the crash a decade ago pretty much every area of the world in doing well.
The IMF this week predicted the world economy will grow by 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019 — powered by a US economy expanding at 2.7 per cent this year and a eurozone economy at 2.2 per cent.
One of the few outliers remains Brexit Britain, with growth of 1.5 per cent forecast for next year. Not long ago we were the fastest-growing of the advanced economies; now we are among the slowest.
We once outpaced the US; now our growth is almost of that country’s.
It is against this backdrop that some politicians in Britain are talking of a “Brexit Dividend”. It is surreal.
The rest of the world sees clearly that there is no dividend from leaving the EU, just an enormous cost.
The €50 billion divorce bill; the ongoing payments during transition to comply with rules we no longer set; and the downgraded economic performance that, as the Institute for Fiscal Studies confirms, will reduce tax revenues by billions every year.
So whether or not the NHS needs more money, we should face facts: Brexit makes finding that extra money more difficult.
This seems to have escaped Boris Johnson. But why should he know? As Philip Hammond publicly reminded him this morning, he’s only the Foreign Secretary.
London plugs in
Today London’s first electric-powered black cabs come into service, heralding cleaner air and quieter rides.
Built in Britain, they are a world leader. But they are not the only way in which the capital is taking a technological lead.
By 2024, there are likely to be more than 30 million smartphones, tablets and other devices in use in London. But connectivity is patchy and internet speeds still slower than might seem possible for one of the great global capitals.
That now seems likely to change once an ambitious plan from City Hall gets under way, to install a network of up to 500,000 “small cells” on lamp-posts across the city. It will help London achieve a competitive advantage over New York and Paris and enable us to rival the technologically advanced cities of Asia.
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Indeed, the ambition is to provide speeds of 1,000 megabits per second, fast enough to download an entire HD movie in seven seconds. In parts of the capital, that can take hours.
We are only slowly acting on the reality that internet connectivity is as crucial for the contemporary economy as rail and underground networks.
Speed matters. And poor connectivity in less fortunate parts of London amounts to a kind of digital poverty, between the connected haves and the digital have-nots.
Sorting that out should be a priority. The new masts are a hopeful step forward.
Onto a winner
With Andy Murray out of action after surgery, British hopes at the Australian Open looked limited. Enter Kyle Edmund.
The swaggering Yorkshireman with a killer forehand scored another triumph early this morning when he beat the world No 3 Grigor Dimitrov in Melbourne to make the semi-finals. Whatever happens next, the cheers when he plays at Wimbledon this summer are bound to be huge.
After Henman Hill and Murray Mount, will it be Kyle Crags next?
