UK sales drag is clouding the picture for Tesco

James Thompson11 April 2012

If analysts were disappointed with Morrisons' festive trading, they are likely to sharpen their knives on Tesco's UK performance.

The market leader on Thursday will talk up growth in its total UK sales - boosted by a breakneck opening programme - and a revenue rise in a number of its 13 markets overseas.

However, Blighty remains the engine room, accounting for more than 70% of group operating profits, so declining UK underlying sales are a sizeable worry.

Philip Clarke, who took the helm at Tesco following the retirement of Sir Terry Leahy in March, will be privately exasperated its performance lags its domestic rivals.

It is expected to post one of its worst Christmas trading performances in decades, with its joint house broker Deutsche Bank forecasting a 2% fall in its UK like-for-like sales, excluding fuel and petrol. In addition to tough trading in non-food, the grocer's £500 million Big Price Drop campaign launched to a fanfare in the autumn appears to have been a damp squib.

Clarke is also under pressure from a series of departures by his senior lieutenants. Therefore, expect him to come out fighting on Thursday and remember it is still on track to grow group pre-tax profits to £3.6 billion this financial year.

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