Retailers are in for a scary Christmas, poll predicts

A third of shoppers plan to spend even less this Christmas than they did last year, which was the worst on record.

A survey by ICM for trade paper Retail Week found that less than one-tenth of those polled said that they will spend more this year than last.

In December last year same store sales fell by 3.3% as Britons tightened their belts ahead of the recession and in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

By this December, far more will have been directly affected by the recession having either lost their jobs or had their hours or pay cut.

ICM's head of retail research said that last year's Christmas spend was some 25% less than had been expected and that this year's prediction that 33% of shoppers would spend less was a sign of greater realism by consumers.

Retailers said the poll's results pointed to yet another "late" Christmas with most shoppers leaving purchases until the last minute. The survey also showed few shoppers would be influenced to buy early ahead of the raising of the VAT rate in January. While retail chiefs are reluctant to go on the record, some say trading, particularly in fashion, has been dire in recent weeks.

The boss of one of the country's biggest retailers said: "It's dead at the moment. Our stores are full of autumn/winter ranges but it's way too hot and too dry to sell them."

He added: "We may be a year into the recession but the unemployment impact is only just beginning. And the last thing anybody is going to do if they fear for their job is go out and spend on new clothes."

Marks & Spencer is expected to sound a cautious note on Wednesday when it reports half-year sales figures showing general merchandise — mainly clothing — down about 4%.