London hospitality firms predict hit to trade from social distancing rules

The struggle London’s hospitality firms face if they reopen with social distancing measures in place was laid bare on Monday, with big sales drops expected.

Pubs and restaurants that had to close sites in March for the Covid-19 lockdown are hoping to be up and running again from July 4, in line with initial guidance from the government. Most companies have implemented new measures to cope with any social distancing rules.

A survey from trade body UKHospitality showed businesses are predicting a lengthy and painful recovery with levels of trade expected to be significantly suppressed for the months ahead.

Owners of 6000 London venues, including pubs, restaurants, hotels, clubs and other sites, were asked about trading expectations. In July companies expect to achieve 32% and 15% of last year’s trade if one and two metre rules are in place respectively.

Here are the London forecasts for 2020:

July 1m 32%

July 2m 17%

Aug 1m 38%

Aug 2m 22%

Sep 1m 49%

Sep 2m 28%

Dec 1m 60%

Dec 2m 35%

(Proportion of previous year’s trade. UKHospitality figures).

UKHospitality’s chief executive Kate Nicholls said:“For most venues, operating with the two-metre social distancing rule is financially unviable, so if the current review on social distancing recommends it is safe to do so, we would urge the government to adopt the internationally-recognised standard of one metre."

Nicholls added: "Such a reduction would be a huge boost for the sector and prove critical to the survival of the vast majority of businesses.”

The chief executive of pubs firm Young’s and restaurant company Wahaca are among those to have recently discussed the two-metre rule. YO! Sushi’s boss Richard Hodgson today joined the list of bosses to comment on the subject.

Hodgson said: “Two metres is excessive and beyond the guidelines elsewhere. We believe one metre is sufficient. Customers can choose to come in if they feel safe and choose not to if they don’t. We have stool covers that will be placed on either side of seated customers to stop anyone invading their space so they can dine in comfort and safety.”

The industry is hoping the Prime Minister will this week announce the two-metre rule will be relaxed and confirm that sites can definitely reopen from July 4.