Jim Armitage: Leave vote would be dire blow to vital trading partner

The Evening Standard today urges readers to vote Remain because staying in Europe is the best way to ensure the prosperity of businesses on which all our futures rely.

Not just for the dry matter of trade tariffs and uniform regulations, but due to the dire implications for us all of the weakened Europe that would result from our departure.

A British exit could put intolerable strain on the whole EU project, emboldening on the one hand right-wing secessionists like Marine Le Pen’s Front National and, on the other, the lefty “more Europe” camp that wants to pull remainers together and shift to more protectionism.

Amid all those tensions, it’s possible the EU, our biggest trading partner, could shatter altogether. The resulting disruption for UK exporters would dwarf anything we’ve seen since the oil shock of the Seventies.

As businesses still struggle to recover from the financial crisis, we just don’t need that.

Ulster’s donor wrap

Brexit businessmen can be a shy old lot. A few exceptions such as Sir James Dyson and Crispin Odey aside, this tiny minority rarely put their head above the parapet. The same shyness probably goes for those donating cash to the Brexit campaign, too.

Political veterans suspect this might explain the pricey UK wraparound Brexit ad in the Metro newspaper yesterday taken out, weirdly, by Ulster’s Democratic Unionist Party. You see, where political donors on the mainland must disclose their identities, a rule in the province dating from the Troubles still grants them anonymity. In previous political campaigns, that’s made it a perfect cover for shy tycoon-donors, and also allowed parties to funnel extra spending when they go beyond their maximum campaign allowance.

I asked the DUP for comment, but answer came there none. I guess we’ll never know.

Our Hispanic shadow

The poor old Mexican peso rarely catches a break. Already the worst-performing major currency this year thanks to Donald Trump, it is now suffering from being a popular hedge against a Brexit.

In one of those quirks of global finance, the peso follows the pound like a Hispanic shadow. So, as the Brexit camp has gained strength, hedgies have been shorting like it’s 1994, driving the currency ever further down.

So, will the peso bounce back if Remain win the day? Unlikely. It is a depressive beast, reacting far more to bad news than good. So put the tequila away, there’ll be no parties in Mexico for a long time yet.