Comment: But there’s no chance of cashing in yet

11 April 2012

Don't crack open the champagne yet.

The £3000 every UK household has invested in Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds may at last be showing a profit.

But don't expect to see the money any time soon.

No matter how much the Government wants a quick sale, it still looks an awfully long way off.

Before any deal can be done, the banks and the Treasury need to hammer out the details of the Asset Protection Scheme, in which hundreds of billions of pounds of toxic debts will be insured.

Lloyds and RBS are both seeking more favourable terms than those agreed when the crisis was at its worst.

Until this is sorted out, potential investors are likely to feel that there is too much uncertainty surrounding the banks to make any sale possible.

The size of the stakes is also a problem. The sale of all the shares in one go would effectively represent the biggest privatisation ever in Europe, not any easy task following the greatest shock to the financial system since the Great Depression.

Of course, that is just one option available to UK Financial Investments. More likely it will offload its stakes gradually through multiple sales to a variety of investors or the use of convertible bonds.

There is also a question of price.

RBS is showing a profit, but not enough to absorb the sort of discount needed to offload the shares. Lloyds shares are still under water.

Many observers reckon the share price rally of recent months has been overdone and a correction is on the way.

Unemployment is rising, profits are weak, bank lending is limited, and vast levels of government debt mean that tax rises and spending cuts are on the way.

Against this backdrop, a strong economic recovery looks highly unlikely, and that is bad news for banks.

Welcome though today's news is, the taxpayer will be still be footing the bill for RBS and Lloyds, as well as Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley, for some time to come.

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